Summary, The Economy, Markets, and Looking Forward. In our last commentary, we predicted that the news cycle would be inundated with election updates and analysis. Although, we did not expect events of this magnitude.
Summary The Economy Markets Looking Forward Summary Inflation and economic growth both showed continued but slowing momentum in the second quarter of the year. U.S. equity markets built on a strong start in the first quarter as investors continued to believe in the soft-landing scenario for the economy and the...
Resilience in both the U.S. economy and inflation caused market participants to recalibrate their expectations for lower policy rates from the Federal Reserve. Economic data modestly reaccelerated while inflation rose a bit more than expected, driven by services and energy prices.
The Economy. The economy maintained its trajectory of growth with slowing inflation. In fact, inflation slowed enough that the Federal Reserve kept the Federal Funds rate level during its two Q4 meetings. This prompted a strong rally in risk assets as markets applauded the likely end to the Fed’s current rate hike cycle, possible rate cuts in 2024 and the improved potential for a legitimate soft landing for the economy.
Summary Economic data continues to be mixed as the labor market remains strong, weak manufacturing data seems better than many feared, services data is slowing but still resilient, and inflation remains elevated but improving.
